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Submitted
June 4, 2026
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September 15, 2026
Published
October 1, 2026
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Abstract

Batu City was one of the main centers of cut flower production in East Java, particularly for roses (Rosa sp.), where favorable climatic conditions support floriculture development. However, rose productivity has fluctuated in recent years, potentially linked to rainfall variability and meteorological drought influenced by global climate phenomena such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This study aimed to analyze the temporal characteristics of meteorological drought in Batu City using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), examine the relationship between SPI values and rose productivity, and determine the sensitivity of rose productivity to drought conditions. The study employed secondary data consisting of monthly rainfall records from 1981–2024 obtained from the CHIRPS dataset and annual rose productivity data from the Batu City Statistics Agency (BPS). SPI values were calculated using SPI-3 through the SPEI package in RStudio, followed by Spearman correlation and simple linear regression analyses. In addition, primary data were collected through interviews with rose farmers in Gunungsari Village, Bumiaji District, to provide field-based perspectives on climate impacts. The results showed a correlation coefficient of 0.278 between SPI values and rose productivity, indicating a weak relationship. Despite this, 91.3% of farmers identified weather conditions as the main factor affecting production and flower quality. These findings suggest that meteorological drought alone cannot fully explain rose productivity variations, as cultivation practices, water management, and other environmental and economic factors also play important roles.

Keywords

climate variability meteorological drought rose productivity rainfall variability standardized precipitation index (SPI)

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Copyright (c) 2026 Fariz Nada, Ninuk Herlina

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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Nada, F., & Herlina, N. (2026). Analysis of drought index and its relationship with Rose (Rosa sp.) productivity in Batu City, East Java. Jurnal Lahan Suboptimal : Journal of Suboptimal Lands, 15(2), 154–159. https://doi.org/10.36706/jlso.15.2.2026.822
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