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Abstract
Batu City was one of the main centers of cut flower production in East Java, particularly for roses (Rosa sp.), where favorable climatic conditions support floriculture development. However, rose productivity has fluctuated in recent years, potentially linked to rainfall variability and meteorological drought influenced by global climate phenomena such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This study aimed to analyze the temporal characteristics of meteorological drought in Batu City using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), examine the relationship between SPI values and rose productivity, and determine the sensitivity of rose productivity to drought conditions. The study employed secondary data consisting of monthly rainfall records from 1981–2024 obtained from the CHIRPS dataset and annual rose productivity data from the Batu City Statistics Agency (BPS). SPI values were calculated using SPI-3 through the SPEI package in RStudio, followed by Spearman correlation and simple linear regression analyses. In addition, primary data were collected through interviews with rose farmers in Gunungsari Village, Bumiaji District, to provide field-based perspectives on climate impacts. The results showed a correlation coefficient of 0.278 between SPI values and rose productivity, indicating a weak relationship. Despite this, 91.3% of farmers identified weather conditions as the main factor affecting production and flower quality. These findings suggest that meteorological drought alone cannot fully explain rose productivity variations, as cultivation practices, water management, and other environmental and economic factors also play important roles.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Fariz Nada, Ninuk Herlina
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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References
Aalam, F., Nejad, A. R., Fard, S. M., Raji, M., & Nikoloudakis, N. (2024). Water deficit severity during the preceding year determines plant tolerance to subsequent year drought stress challenges: a case study in damask rose. Hortic., 10(5), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/horticulturae10050462
Ainayyah, A.T., Harisuseno, D., & Wahyuni, S. (2024). Study on the use of CHIRPS satellite data for meteorological drought analysis using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Method in the Kadalpang Sub-Watershed. J. Teknologi dan Rekayasa Sumber Daya Air, 4(1), 994–1004. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jtresda.2024.004.01.084
Firmansyah, A. J., Nurjani, E., & Sekaranom, A.B. (2022). Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall anomalies in Central Java, Indonesia. Arabian J. of Geosciences, 15(24), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-11016-2
Hajizadeh, H. S., Azizi, S., Rasouli, F., & Okatan, V. (2022). Modulation of physiological and biochemical traits of two genotypes of Rosa damascena Mill. by SiO2-NPs under in vitro drought stress. BMC Plant Biology, 22(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12870-022-03915-z
Khan, A. A., Wang, Y. F., Akbar, R., & Alhoqail, W. A. (2025). Mechanistic insights and future perspectives of drought stress management in staple crops. Frontiers in Plant Science, 16, 1–31. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2025.1547452
Li, L., Zhu, H., Ju, Y., Lv, Z., & Qian, C. (2024). Comparison of microstructure and physiological response of the leaves of six Rosa rugosa genotypes under drought stress. Ornamental Plant Research, 4, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.48130/opr-0024-0014
Mardiansyah, W., Setiabudidaya, D., Yusup, M., Khakim, N., & Yustian, I. (2018). On the influence of ENSO and IOD on rainfall Variability Over The Musi Basin, South Sumatra. Science and Technology Indonesia, 3(4), 157–163. https://doi.org/11.26554/sti.2218.3.4.157-163
Nurdiati, S., Bukhari, F., Julianto, M. T., Sopaheluwakan, A., & Aprili, M. (2022). The impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian ocean dipole on the burned area in Indonesia. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 33(15), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/S44195-022-00016-0
Nur’utami, M. N., & Hidayat, R. (2016). Influences of IOD and ENSO to Indonesian rainfall variability: Role of atmosphere-ocean interaction in the Indo-Pacific sector. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 33, 196–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2016.03.070
Park, J., Lee, S. H., Lee, J., Wi, S. H., & Seo, T. C. (2025). Growing vegetables in a warming world: A review of crop response to drought stress and strategies to mitigate adverse effects in vegetable production. Frontiers in Plant Science, 16, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2025.1561100
Pooja, M. S., Abass, M., Nazir, M., Teotia, J., & Farooq, H. (2024). The Impact of climate change on flowering patterns and productivity in floriculture: a comprehensive review. J. Sci. Res. Rep., 30(11), 577–590. https://doi.org/10.9734/jsrr/2024/v30i112586
Putri, L. M., Fadhilah, M. L., & Cahyaningtyas, N. I. (2025). Understanding factors influencing rose productivity in Central Java Province, Indonesia. World J. of Advanced Research and Reviews, 27(3), 1426–1434. https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2025.27.3.3302
Sarku, R., Addi, F., & Attoh, E. (2025). Improving the usability of new ICTs for the provision of climate information services for farming in Ghana. Clim. Serv. 37, 1–19. https://doi.org.10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100535
Serrano-Vincenti, S., Guamán-Pozo, J., Chuqui, J., Tufiño, R., & Franco-Crespo, C. (2025). Measuring the effects of climate change on traditional crops in tropical highlands, Ecuador. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 9, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2025.1447593
Siswanto, S., Wardani, K. K., Purbantoro, B., Rustanto, A., & Zulkarnain, F. (2022). Satellite-based meteorological drought indicator to support food security in Java Island. PLOS ONE, 17(6), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260982
Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Gudmundsson, L., Van Loon, A. F., & Stahl, K. (2015). Candidate distributions for climatological drought indices (SPI and SPEI). International Journal of Climatology, 35(13), 4027–4040. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4267
Tiasmalomo, R., Salam, M., Iswoyo, H., Jamil, M. H., & Tenriawaru, A. N. (2025). The sustainability status of cut rose farming in Batu City: Uncovering data and facts from Indonesia’s largest cut rose producing city. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 28, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2025.100899
Verdonk, J. C., van Ieperen, W., Carvalho, D. R. A., van Geest, G., & Schouten, R. E. (2023). Effect of preharvest conditions on cut-flower quality. Frontiers in Plant Science, 14, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2023.1281456
Wang, L., & Ren, W. (2025). Drought in agriculture and climate-smart mitigation strategies. Cell Reports Sustainability, 2(6), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100386
Zarif, H., Fan, C., Yuan, G., Zhou, R., & Chang, Y. (2025). Drought stress in roses: A comprehensive review of morphophysiological, biochemical, and molecular responses. International Journal of Molecular Sciences, 26(9), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms26094272